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Title : What Must Russia And The U.S. Do To Avoid A War Over Syria?
link : What Must Russia And The U.S. Do To Avoid A War Over Syria?
What Must Russia And The U.S. Do To Avoid A War Over Syria?
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin © Reuters / Sputnik
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, National Interest: How Do America and Russia Avoid a War over Syria?
The United States needs to think soberly about its next steps—and not stumble into a clash with Russia that it neither foresees nor desires.
That it has taken so long since the Russian intervention in Syria began in earnest, a year and a half ago, for an incident to occur that might directly pit Russian and American forces against each other has been nothing short of miraculous. That luck ran out this week, with the downing of a Syrian government warplane accused of carrying out air strikes against the U.S.-backed opposition Syrian Democratic Forces—the first time since the 1999 Kosovo campaign that an American fighter has shot down a plane in air-to-air combat.
The Kremlin’s carefully crafted angry response warned that, from this time forward, Moscow will consider as hostile any aircraft overflying Syrian territory without the express permission of the Bashar al-Assad regime, but, crucially, it did not commit the Russian contingent in Syria to take action. Moscow appears to be carefully parsing its words to avoid drawing a red line it may not wish to enforce, or, as my colleague Michael Kofman has aptly pointed out, may not have the technical abilities in place to actually back up.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: In the past when such conflicts arose .... the back-channels would be burning red-hot right now and the outlines of a deal and/or a lessening of tensions would then be leaked/hinted to the press and widely reported. I do not see that happening at all right now. What I am seeing and hearing right now is an incredibly hostile Russian press .... a hostility that is at a level that I have not heard in a very long time. In the U.S. .... some in the press are worried that President Trump will plunge us into World War IIII .... but the focus is on Russia-gate and the Mueller investigation. In the Middle East .... the impression that I am having is that Iran and their allies are "gun-whole" on doing on what is necessary to drive the U.S. forces out of Syria .... and they are not looking for a deal .... what they are looking for is a fight. To avoid war in the Middle East .... what we need is a deal. But a deal is not what a lot of people want right now. My prediction .... as the Islamic State continues to collapse ... Syrian and Iranian backed forces will be pushing to fill the void .... and they are going to be testing the U.S. and Kurdish/Syrian rebel forces that are there. Expect more deadly confrontations in the coming weeks .... and as for Russia .... I do hope that they stick to their position that the will remain to the West of the Euphrates .... but everything is fluid right now, and anything is possible.
U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin © Reuters / Sputnik
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, National Interest: How Do America and Russia Avoid a War over Syria?
The United States needs to think soberly about its next steps—and not stumble into a clash with Russia that it neither foresees nor desires.
That it has taken so long since the Russian intervention in Syria began in earnest, a year and a half ago, for an incident to occur that might directly pit Russian and American forces against each other has been nothing short of miraculous. That luck ran out this week, with the downing of a Syrian government warplane accused of carrying out air strikes against the U.S.-backed opposition Syrian Democratic Forces—the first time since the 1999 Kosovo campaign that an American fighter has shot down a plane in air-to-air combat.
The Kremlin’s carefully crafted angry response warned that, from this time forward, Moscow will consider as hostile any aircraft overflying Syrian territory without the express permission of the Bashar al-Assad regime, but, crucially, it did not commit the Russian contingent in Syria to take action. Moscow appears to be carefully parsing its words to avoid drawing a red line it may not wish to enforce, or, as my colleague Michael
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Kofman has aptly pointed out, may not have the technical abilities in place to actually back up.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: In the past when such conflicts arose .... the back-channels would be burning red-hot right now and the outlines of a deal and/or a lessening of tensions would then be leaked/hinted to the press and widely reported. I do not see that happening at all right now. What I am seeing and hearing right now is an incredibly hostile Russian press .... a hostility that is at a level that I have not heard in a very long time. In the U.S. .... some in the press are worried that President Trump will plunge us into World War IIII .... but the focus is on Russia-gate and the Mueller investigation. In the Middle East .... the impression that I am having is that Iran and their allies are "gun-whole" on doing on what is necessary to drive the U.S. forces out of Syria .... and they are not looking for a deal .... what they are looking for is a fight. To avoid war in the Middle East .... what we need is a deal. But a deal is not what a lot of people want right now. My prediction .... as the Islamic State continues to collapse ... Syrian and Iranian backed forces will be pushing to fill the void .... and they are going to be testing the U.S. and Kurdish/Syrian rebel forces that are there. Expect more deadly confrontations in the coming weeks .... and as for Russia .... I do hope that they stick to their position that the will remain to the West of the Euphrates .... but everything is fluid right now, and anything is possible.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: In the past when such conflicts arose .... the back-channels would be burning red-hot right now and the outlines of a deal and/or a lessening of tensions would then be leaked/hinted to the press and widely reported. I do not see that happening at all right now. What I am seeing and hearing right now is an incredibly hostile Russian press .... a hostility that is at a level that I have not heard in a very long time. In the U.S. .... some in the press are worried that President Trump will plunge us into World War IIII .... but the focus is on Russia-gate and the Mueller investigation. In the Middle East .... the impression that I am having is that Iran and their allies are "gun-whole" on doing on what is necessary to drive the U.S. forces out of Syria .... and they are not looking for a deal .... what they are looking for is a fight. To avoid war in the Middle East .... what we need is a deal. But a deal is not what a lot of people want right now. My prediction .... as the Islamic State continues to collapse ... Syrian and Iranian backed forces will be pushing to fill the void .... and they are going to be testing the U.S. and Kurdish/Syrian rebel forces that are there. Expect more deadly confrontations in the coming weeks .... and as for Russia .... I do hope that they stick to their position that the will remain to the West of the Euphrates .... but everything is fluid right now, and anything is possible.
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