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Independent women now favor the Republicans by 18 percentage points, when last month they favored Democrats by 14 points.

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Title : Independent women now favor the Republicans by 18 percentage points, when last month they favored Democrats by 14 points.
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Independent women now favor the Republicans by 18 percentage points, when last month they favored Democrats by 14 points.

That's a 32-point turnaround. How the hell could that happen?!

That's from the new Times/Siena poll, discussed in the NYT article "Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds/With elections next month, independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. Disapproval of President Biden seems to be hurting his party." 

The NYT says that's "a striking swing given... how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights."

Obviously, one explanation is that the polls are massaged and the direction of the massage changes as we get closer to the election. That would mean the earlier poll was more about shaping opinion, and the new poll, so close to the election, needs to approximate what will actually happen in the election, so the pollsters won't lose credibility. We've all heard that explanation.

But a 32-point turnaround in one month — that's so huge!

Is it that "disapproval of President Biden" is "hurting his party"? Or is it that the stress on abortion rights isn't hitting independent women the way Democrats think it would?

When you look at independents as a whole — men and women — they favor Republicans by 10 percentage points, up from 3 last month, a 7 percentage point difference. What's going on with independent women? I myself am an independent woman, but I don't feel that I exemplify my group. In case I do, I'll just say that I feel distanced from all major-party politicians.

And, for the record, I hate abortion but support abortion rights. That is, I've supported abortion rights, as protected by the courts, but I expected the moderate politicians to propose legislation that would protect access to abortion, up to a certain point, which we would openly discuss, perhaps coming up with a reasonable time limit — subject to some exceptions — perhaps 15 weeks. I wanted to see a chart showing the development of the embryo/fetus week by week and polls asking what people think is the right line between letting the woman control her own body and protecting the unborn.

But that's not what we've seen. We've got Democrats resisting setting any limit. Instead of saying let's restore access to the point of viability — the Roe line — they're resisting setting any line. I say "they" but I'm not listening all the time to all of them. I did watch the Wisconsin gubernatorial debate in which the Republican Tim Michels accused the Democrat Tony Evers of supporting access to abortion up to the point of birth, and Tony Evers never corrected him — not right after the accusation was made and not later when the moderator asked each candidate to correct anything that has been said about him that's wrong. 

So I've got to consider the possibility that the giant 32-point shift in opinion is not in spite of the Democrats' support for abortion rights but in part because of it.

But maybe it's in spite of the abortion issues. Economic matters dominate, and people may want change. But why are women — in the independent group — changing so much more than men?

That's a 32-point turnaround. How the hell could that happen?!

That's from the new Times/Siena poll, discussed in the NYT article "Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds/With elections next month, independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. Disapproval of President Biden seems to be hurting his party." 

The NYT says that's "a striking swing given... how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights."

Obviously, one explanation is that the polls are massaged and the direction of the massage changes as we get closer to the election. That would mean the earlier poll was more about shaping opinion, and the new poll, so close to the election, needs to approximate what will actually happen in the election, so the pollsters won't lose credibility. We've all heard that explanation.

But a 32-point turnaround in one month — that's so huge!

Is it that "disapproval of President Biden" is "hurting his party"? Or is it that the stress on abortion rights isn't hitting independent women the way Democrats think it would?

When you look at independents as a whole — men and women — they favor Republicans by 10 percentage points, up from 3 last month, a 7 percentage point difference. What's going on with independent women? I myself am an independent woman, but I don't feel that I exemplify my group. In case I do, I'll just say

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that I feel distanced from all major-party politicians.

And, for the record, I hate abortion but support abortion rights. That is, I've supported abortion rights, as protected by the courts, but I expected the moderate politicians to propose legislation that would protect access to abortion, up to a certain point, which we would openly discuss, perhaps coming up with a reasonable time limit — subject to some exceptions — perhaps 15 weeks. I wanted to see a chart showing the development of the embryo/fetus week by week and polls asking what people think is the right line between letting the woman control her own body and protecting the unborn.

But that's not what we've seen. We've got Democrats resisting setting any limit. Instead of saying let's restore access to the point of viability — the Roe line — they're resisting setting any line. I say "they" but I'm not listening all the time to all of them. I did watch the Wisconsin gubernatorial debate in which the Republican Tim Michels accused the Democrat Tony Evers of supporting access to abortion up to the point of birth, and Tony Evers never corrected him — not right after the accusation was made and not later when the moderator asked each candidate to correct anything that has been said about him that's wrong. 

So I've got to consider the possibility that the giant 32-point shift in opinion is not in spite of the Democrats' support for abortion rights but in part because of it.

But maybe it's in spite of the abortion issues. Economic matters dominate, and people may want change. But why are women — in the independent group — changing so much more than men?



Thus articles Independent women now favor the Republicans by 18 percentage points, when last month they favored Democrats by 14 points.

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